Rising exports, the first sign of economic rebound

In November 2008 exports went into negative territory for the first time in five years. In November 2009, they rebounded.

The volume of sales on foreign markets in November peaked at 2.74bn euros, according to National Statistics Institute (INS) preliminary data, the highest level of the past 12 months, announcing economic recovery. Exports account for around 30% in GDP and are tightly connected to the industrial sector that employs more than two million Romanians.

For the first time in 2009, the volume of exports went up, by 7% from the same month of 2008. The increase offset the loss posted in November 2008, thus reaching a level equivalent to that of November 2007.

"We're starting to make comparisons against a low base, against the worst period of the Romanian crisis, which may be making us more optimistic. But we mustn't delude ourselves by making comparisons against the lowest level of the Romanian economy," says Florin Pogonaru, chairman of the Association of Businesspeople in Romania (AOAR).

The November increase comes after many months that brought two-digit declines. In the first 11 months of the year, the volume of exports posted an overall decrease of 16% from the same period of 2008, to 26.7bn euros.

As a rule, the last two months of a year bring an increase in exports, as this is the time when commercial contracts fall due and commodities are delivered on foreign markets.

"Foreign trade activity is the first that signals the exit from the crisis, being the direct contact of the Romanian economy with global economies. Romanian producers are trying to save themselves through exports as they can no longer count on domestic market demand, dented by the falling purchasing power," Valentin Brebenel, foreign trade adviser with the Economy, Trade and Business Environment Ministry, told ZF.

However, imports are still way below last year's level. The volume of imports in November reached 3.5bn euros, down 18% from November 2008. In the first 11 months, imports stood at 35.4bn euros, down 34% from a year ago, showing a still low level of domestic consumption.