Market asks the National Bank to bring the interest rate further down
The National Bank has room to cut its key interest rate towards
6% or even further if no pressures emerge for the depreciation of
the RON or unexpected rises in controlled prices and in fuel
prices, believe bankers and analysts.
However, the impact of the interest rate cut will be reflected on
the market only gradually, with banks already late in reacting to
previous monetary policy decisions, especially in the context where
the price of loans granted also includes the increasingly high cost
of non-performing loans.
"I think the monetary policy relaxation trend will continue in the
coming period, as well, as long as the inflation target is not
under threat," says Sergiu Oprescu, president of Alpha Bank, the
fourth largest bank on the Romanian market in terms of assets. He
expects the monetary policy signals to be reflected gradually in
the real economy, like it happened in the past, first on deposits,
and then on loans.
Analysts, however, believe the cheapening of loans will give a
breath of fresh air to healthy companies.
"There will be a positive effect, the economy will be stimulated
because at least companies with viable projects will be encouraged
to take out loans in order to develop them (...)," says Mihai Ion,
president of Raiffeisen Asset Management.