IMF no longer believes Romania will achieve 1.3% growth
The IMF is preparing a downward revision of the economic growth
forecast for Romania this year, from 1.3% to 0.8-1% of GDP, given
that the weak performance of the industry in February and the
continuation of the trade decline are considered disappointing by
specialists in terms of the chances for an economic rebound.
The Fund, however, continues to believe that the rebound might
happen in the second half of the year.
"The Romanian economy has been in intensive care. (...) It's like a
patient that came in to the hospital with a high fever. The fever
is gone, but the patient is still weak," Jeffrey Franks, the head
of the IMF mission in Romania said on the "Dupa 20 de ani" ("20
Years Later") show broadcast by ProTV. He believes the economy will
see positive growth in the second half of his year, which will be
the start of a rebound, but warns that the levels before the crisis
will not be reached, at least at first.
On the other hand, Barclays Capital, the investment arm of one of
the biggest UK banks, believes that recent data about Romania's
economy performance - industrial output, trade, construction, in
the first quarter suggest that the economy is still weak and that
the recession appears to be W-shaped.