IMF completes Romanian review. Is the money coming in September?
The IMF, the European Commission, and the World Bank have
completed the review of Romania's economic performances in the
first half of the year, and the new macroeconomic forecasts for
2011, with conclusions of talks with the Romanian authorities to be
announced today in a press conference.
The release of the around 900 million-euro tranche of the stand-by
arrangement with Romania depends on the conclusions of the review.
Although the target set as regards the state's arrears to companies
has been, as usual, missed, the release of the tranche in the
second half of September appears to be quite certain.
Economic growth, fiscal policy, structural reforms, the state of
the financial sector, and monetary policy are some of the topics
discussed by the Romanian authorities with the IMF.
While this year will quite certainly see economic recession deepen,
2011 estimates appear quite upbeat.
After the economy fell by 7.1% in 2009, this year's contraction is
expected to be 1.7-1.0%, whilst the draft budget discussed with the
IMF provides for a 1.5-2% GDP rise, as announced by Finance
Minister Sebastian Vl`descu. It remains to be seen if the economic
progression will contradict the optimism of the authorities and of
the international financial institutions, as has been the case this
year.