Bankers' forecasts on the RON/euro exchange rate in 2011

Players on the forex market, where nearly 400 billion euros are traded every year, say the euro will remain in the 4.2 RON region this year, as well.
The euro will remain above 4.2 RON at least until March, although the RON started the year with a surprising appreciation, after the exchange rate had seen only slight fluctuations around 4.3 RON per euro in the first part of 2010.
Only towards the yearend is a stronger RON possible, but until then there remain a few questions, say experts who answered ZF's request for a forecast on the euro's progression across 2011.
In 2010, the level of the exchange rate helped exports grow by rates of nearly 30%, but this year the challenges are significant, considering that foreign demand will be affected by the austerity measures taken by most European countries.
On the other hand, the current exchange rate level is extremely burdensome for those who borrowed in foreign currency in 2007 and 2008, when the euro was worth 20% less, with their difficulties being apparent in the increasingly fast rise in late payments.
Claudiu Cercel, deputy chief executive in charge of financial markets at BRD, sees the euro at 4.25 RON at the end of the first quarter. For the rest of the year he anticipates a slight appreciation of the Romanian currency, and an exchange rate of 4.20 RON/euro towards the end of the year.
Only slightly more optimistic are the BCR analysts, who in December anticipated the euro would fluctuate between 4.1 and 4.3 RON, a range only slightly narrower than in 2010.
The RON started 2011 on the right foot, experiencing a considerable appreciation from 4.28 RON/euro in the last trading session in December, to 4.26 RON/euro. However, analysts say it is too early to talk about a reliable trend of appreciation.