Pleasant surprise: Economy down by merely 1.2% in 2010, proving forecasts of -2% wrong
Romania's Gross Domestic Product fell by 1.2% last year, less
than analysts' and authorities' forecasts, which hovered around
2%.
The Romanian economy rose by 0.1% in the last three months of 2010
against the preceding quarter, contrary to most analysts'
expectations of a decline.
Analysts, however, say that the figure was very close to zero and
could be later revised, with the "plus" or "minus" sign being less
relevant.
"This positive figure can be explained by revisions of past data.
The -1.2% decline can only be explained if historical series were
revised. There could be major revisions both for 2010 and for 2009.
One cannot rule out the possibility that the minus of the first
quarter has been turned into a plus. If 2009 data have not been
revised, one could only come up with 1.2% if first-quarter economic
growth were positive," commented Nicolaie Chideşciuc,
chief-economist of ING Bank.
He says considering that the 2010 economic decline was lower than
expected, there is a big chance this year's economic growth could
exceed 0.2%.
The austerity measures adopted by the authorities, the VAT hike and
the 25% public sector wages cut, were reflected in the GDP
dynamics. After the economy's feeble return to positive territory
in the second quarter, the seasonally-adjusted GDP dipped back into
negative territory in the third quarter. The GDP fell 2.5% in the
third quarter against the corresponding period of 2009, after a
decline of just 0.5% in April-June of 2010.