How could economy leave recession behind?
Analysts believe there are few chances that the economy will
perform better in the third quarter against the last three months
of last year, with a modest growth being possible as a result of
the robust export growth, the reversal of public sector salary cuts
and the slight growth in the consumer spending in the first
quarter.
In the last quarter of 2010 the economy grew 0.1% against the
preceding quarter, above the expectations of analysts, who had
anticipated a decline. The economy went into recession in the third
quarter of 2008, and since the autumn of 2008 the GDP recorded
declines in every quarter, but for the slight growth, of 0.1% in
the third quarter of 2009, in the second quarter of 2010 and in the
fourth quarter of 2010.
"I believe there are few chances the economy will perform better in
the first quarter of 2011 than in the last quarter of 2010, because
infrastructure investments will start at best in the second if not
in the third quarter, as a result of unfavourable weather
conditions in the first quarter and the time needed at the
beginning of each year for planning infrastructure works according
to the allocated budget and to government priorities," commented
Melania Hancila, chief economist of Volksbank.
Nicolaie Chidesciuc, chief economist of ING Bank, says positive
economic growth in the first quarter of 2011 does not mean we are
out of recession in the first quarter of 2011.
"There is no clear definition of entry into recession and of exit
from recession. If we record economic growth in the first quarter
of 2011 and in the next quarters, and the figure for the fourth
quarter of 2010 is not revised to a decline, we can say we were out
of recession at the end of the third quarter of 2010."