It's just a matter of time before euro is worth 4 lei, say analysts

Autor: Liviu Chiru 24.03.2011

A 4-lei euro, a level that seemed unimaginable as early as at the beginning of this year, when one euro was still close to the 4.3-lei mark, is already considered by all analysts after the euro depreciation against the leu sped up this week.

The NBR (National Bank) yesterday calculated an exchange rate of 4.1020 lei per one euro, 2.4 bani (1 leu - 100 bani) lower than the preceding level. The euro has not fared so poorly against the leu in the official exchange rate since the beginning of April 2010. On the interbank forex market, the last transactions were conducted at exchange rates of 4.0955 lei per one euro yesterday.

The appreciation of the Romanian currency in the last two months, which was potentially influenced by the NBR in the beginning, has sparked the interest of foreign investors, who want to benefit from the leu's rally. Citi and UniCredit analysts yesterday modified their targets, recommending to investors who had in the past sold euros against lei to wait for a 4 lei/euro exchange rate before they take profit.

"The euro/leu exchange rate can fall to 4.03 level from 4.1 now but, but we do not think it will break those levels sustainably as Central Bank will wish to discourage overly fast currency appreciation," says Wike Groenenberg, analyst with Citi London.