NBR is gearing up for inflation caused by internationally risingprices for food and fuel, pushing leu higher and driving interbankinterest rates up to the level of the monetary policy rate. This isthe explanation analysts and dealers have found for past week'sunexpected developments on financial markets.
The next step would be raising the benchmark interest rate fromthe low of 6.25% per annum, where it has stayed since last May, butthe time such a decision will be made is still uncertain.
"NBR has probably come to worry about what's happening withinflation and is rather preparing for 2012 than for 2011, becausethe impact of the interest channel is felt over a longer term.Virtually, they wanted to get back to the position of net lender tothe banking system, judging by the high volume of interventions.They sold a lot of foreign currency in several days and took a lotof liquidity out of the system," says NicolaieAlexandru-Chideşciuc, chief-economist with ING Bank.
The NBR has an official inflation target of 3% for this year andof 2.5% for next year.
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