Head of Statistics Institute sees growth in Q3 and W-shaped recession

14 sep 2010 Autor: Claudia Medrega

The economy could get out of recession at the end of the third quarter, after a new increase in the GDP, but the last quarter might see decline, hence a W-shaped trend, said Vergil Voineagu, National Statistics Institute (INS) chairman.

The opinion contradicts most analysts who see decline in the third quarter.

Romania registered a slight increase in seasonally adjusted terms from April through June, for the first time after three quarters of decline. The second quarter growth stood at 0.3% compared with the first three quarters of the year.

The INS chairman explained that the two consecutive quarters of GDP growth pointed to an exit from recession, which could happen if the GDP goes up in seasonally adjusted terms in the third quarter compared with the second.

Inquired about the final quarter performance, Voineagu said the forecast timeframe was distant, but added that the economy could witness decline, thus leading to a W-shaped recession.