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Will we see positive GDP figures for the last quarter of 2010?

Autor: Claudia Medrega

15.02.2011, 08:15 15

Romanian President Traian Băsescu made a surprise announcementthat Romania would not see negative growth in the fourth quarter of2010 after all, contradicting forecasts of most analysts.
"A few positive signs have already started to emerge, against allestimates. Romania will not see negative growth in the fourthquarter of last year, statistical figures will emerge over the nextfew weeks. Positive growth could start in the first half of thisyear," the President told România Liberă daily in aninterview.
The National Statistics Institute announces today the firstforecasts on GDP progression in the last quarter of lastyear.
Most analysts anticipate a GDP decline was recorded in the lastquarter, both against the third quarter of the year andyear-on-year.
"We think the economy remained in negative territory in the lastquarter, but the decline is less significant. The estimated declineis 0.3% quarter on quarter in seasonally adjusted terms, and 1%year-on-year. The decline was less marked. An increase could havebeen recorded in the last quarter only against the third quarter,in seasonally adjusted terms. But the chances of that are low. Itwould be a nice surprise if we saw a positive figure," commentedLucian Anghel, chief economist of BCR.

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