Government's risk scenario: 0.2% economic growth and 9% unemployment rate

In a risk scenario, the Romanian government takes into account an economic growth rate of just 0.2% for this year, below the 1.3% target, and does not expect tax collection to improve amid the difficult economic context: it also anticipates the need for additional pension expenditures of 2bn RON per year. The 1.3% economic growth rate included in the basic scenario is rather determined by export growth than domestic demand increase, representing a reversal of the growth pattern of recent years. The economy last year contracted by 7.1%. The Government does not take into account improved tax collection on medium term given the difficult economic environment, so that budgetary revenues will not reach 32% in GDP in the following years. In a risk scenario, revenues will not rise above 31.2% in GDP in 2010 and 2011. Cutting the budgetary deficit to below 3% by 2012 will be difficult to achieve if the economic rebound proves temporary and economic performance is significantly inferior to the basic scenario.