EBRD expects 0.9% economic growth in Romania in 2011
The EBRD, the biggest institutional investor in Romania, has
improved its estimates on GDP growth next year, from zero in July
to 0.9%.
Even so, the forecast on Romania is by far the most pessimistic of
all forecasts for countries in the region. For this year, the EBRD
expects the economy to fall by 2%, an improvement on the previous
-3% forecast.
Forecasts of some analysts for next year have become pessimistic,
anticipating a return to economic growth as late as in 2012. But
the IMF and the government expect a 1.9% economic decline for this
year, with 1.5% growth expected for next year.
Sources taking part in talks with the IMF told ZF the Fund was
unofficially taking into account the risk of 2011 being the third
consecutive year of recession. Officially, however, the IMF is,
standing by its 1.5% forecast for 2011, which is more optimistic
than the EBRD's.
BCR, the biggest bank on the market, has stood by its forecast for
next year, expecting a 1.2% economic growth - the lowest in the
region. For this year, BCR has revised its forecast up, expecting a
2.1% GDP decline instead of the 3% contraction expected after the
VAT hike to 24%. Analysts of the lending institution are thus
approaching the official forecast, supported by the IMF.