Will we see positive GDP figures for the last quarter of 2010?
Romanian President Traian Băsescu made a surprise announcement
that Romania would not see negative growth in the fourth quarter of
2010 after all, contradicting forecasts of most analysts.
"A few positive signs have already started to emerge, against all
estimates. Romania will not see negative growth in the fourth
quarter of last year, statistical figures will emerge over the next
few weeks. Positive growth could start in the first half of this
year," the President told România Liberă daily in an
interview.
The National Statistics Institute announces today the first
forecasts on GDP progression in the last quarter of last
year.
Most analysts anticipate a GDP decline was recorded in the last
quarter, both against the third quarter of the year and
year-on-year.
"We think the economy remained in negative territory in the last
quarter, but the decline is less significant. The estimated decline
is 0.3% quarter on quarter in seasonally adjusted terms, and 1%
year-on-year. The decline was less marked. An increase could have
been recorded in the last quarter only against the third quarter,
in seasonally adjusted terms. But the chances of that are low. It
would be a nice surprise if we saw a positive figure," commented
Lucian Anghel, chief economist of BCR.