The EBRD, the biggest institutional investor in Romania, hasimproved its estimates on GDP growth next year, from zero in Julyto 0.9%.
Even so, the forecast on Romania is by far the most pessimistic ofall forecasts for countries in the region. For this year, the EBRDexpects the economy to fall by 2%, an improvement on the previous-3% forecast.
Forecasts of some analysts for next year have become pessimistic,anticipating a return to economic growth as late as in 2012. Butthe IMF and the government expect a 1.9% economic decline for thisyear, with 1.5% growth expected for next year.
Sources taking part in talks with the IMF told ZF the Fund wasunofficially taking into account the risk of 2011 being the thirdconsecutive year of recession. Officially, however, the IMF is,standing by its 1.5% forecast for 2011, which is more optimisticthan the EBRD's.
BCR, the biggest bank on the market, has stood by its forecast fornext year, expecting a 1.2% economic growth - the lowest in theregion. For this year, BCR has revised its forecast up, expecting a2.1% GDP decline instead of the 3% contraction expected after theVAT hike to 24%. Analysts of the lending institution are thusapproaching the official forecast, supported by the IMF.
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