Romania is in danger of not exiting recession this year, either,because the recovery will not come from domestic consumption, andthe only hope is the economic rebound of Western countries, likelyto spur, with a certain gap, exports and the increase of GDP,considers Radu Craciun, investment manager of Eureko Pensiimanaging assets worth around 40m euros. "It's not realistic for usto expect a domestic consumption pick-up. The unemployment ratewill rise further this year, and the pace of lending will stay verylow. Thus, we have no reason to expect a consumption rebound, atleast not this year. An economic rebound could be based only onrising exports. This is why the NBR does not want the RON tostrengthen. A relatively weak currency is important to bolsterexports," says Craciun, one of the best-known analysts on themarket, with a 15-year experience on financial markets. He expectsGDP trend to range between -0.5% and 1%, but specifies the firstquarter is not a good indicator for the entire yearperformance.
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