The current account deficit of the balance of payments for 2002 will remain below 4% of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), preliminary data show, which is significantly less than anticipated early last year (5.5%), National Bank of Romania (NBR) vice-governor Mihai Bogza said. "The possible explanations seem to be related to both domestic and foreign factors. Domestically speaking, the significant growth (30%) of the non-governmental lending seems to have greatly influenced the production aimed at exports. As regards the foreign influence, the spectacular trend of the euro, which has significantly gained ground both against the USD and the ROL boosted exports and at the same time pushed imports down. There were, of course, other factors to have led to this over-performance, as well," Bogza explained. The central bank vice-governor says it is hard to say what course will the EUR/USD rate take in 2003, but explains some other factors will also influence Romania's foreign trade. The most important such factor is a possible war against Iraq that would raise oil prices worldwide. "Even so, we can still anticipate that in case the macroeconomic policies are maintained, we will see a similar performance of the current account deficit in 2003," the NBR official said. ZF
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