Oil prices could reach 200 dollars/barrel, a price that even the most downbeat players, who projected a 150 dollar threshold early this year, could have hardly anticipated.
Romania currently has some of the lowest prices at the pump among EU states, but this is set to change due to two factors: imported crude oil, which has brought global volatility onto the Romanian market, and the need to bring taxes in line with European levels.
However, since the start of the year, oil prices have not fallen below 95 dollars, so far bringing on average a 58% increase from last year's average price, which will be largely reflected in international diesel oil and petrol quotations.
At the same time, since the start of 2008 diesel oil prices have risen by as much as 11% domestically, while petrol prices have increased by as much as 5.6%, according to the data published on Petrom's website.
Thus, diesel oil has become more expensive than petrol, but the trend may be reversed as petrol consumption rises during spring and summer months.
"Romania is a country that depends on crude oil imports and fuel prices are closely tied to the trend of oil prices on the international market as domestic production only covers 40-45% of domestic consumption. Any 10% increase in the oil price on the international market generates a 3-4% increase in prices at the pump in Romania," say Rompetrol representatives.
Only considering the trend of oil prices since the start of the year, an increase of around 25% for fuel is not unlikely in 2008 if a 110 dollar average price is taken into account for this year. Should information that speculates that prices could reach 200 dollar be taken into account, fuel price increases are spectacular, and could increase by as much as 50%, according to Rompetrol estimates.
Despite all the conditions that may fuel future increases in prices at the pump, Petrom representatives say Romania is among the countries with the lowest fuel prices in the EU, but on medium term these will increase as Romanian taxes are brought in line with European ones.
In March, the European Parliament approved an EC proposal to raise, by 2015, the minimum diesel oil excise duty, of 302 euros/1,000 litres, to the level of that for unleaded petrol, of 359 euros/1,000 litres. Romania, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland and Bulgaria will have the possibility to make this adjustment by 2016.
However, market players believe these tax hikes will not have an impact on fuel demand, whilst most forecast growth rates of between 7% and 10%.
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