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Romania, the only East European country to see its economy contract in 2010

Romania, the only East European country to see its economy contract in 2010
01.08.2010, 23:26 25

The Gvt. currently expects GDP to shrink by 1.9% in 2010,Finance Minister Sebastian Vlădescu stated at the end of last week.Hungary, Baltic countries, Poland, the Czech Republic, Slovakia andBulgaria have exited or haven't even been in recession. Romania ishence going to register the worst economic performance in CEE thisyear, though the country's highest ranking officials during 2009repeatedly said we would exit recession in 2010. Thus, the threemost important figures of the Romanian state, president TraianBăsescu, premier Emil Boc and NBR governor Mugur Isărescu duringthe entire 2009 said the economy would revert to growth in thesecond half of 2010. Moreover, NBR officials until mid-2009insisted there would be no economic downturn in 2009, either.Economic growth prognoses have rapidly deteriorated since early2010, putting the construction of the budget around a GDP increaseof above 1%, determinedly agreed on both by the NBR and the IMF,under the sign of a doubt. Analysts now expect the economy todecline by 2.5-3%, whereas two quarters ago most of them forecast aslight recovery after last year's recession. The official estimateson the trend of the economy in 2010 and 2011 will be made publicthis week at the end of the IMF visit. Premier Emil Boc alsoadmitted yesterday the economy would contract by a higherpercentage than the anticipated level on the VAT hike and floods.Most projections point to an increase by as much as 2% of theRomanian economy in 2011, but ING analysts expect recession tocontinue next year, when GDP may fall by 2.2%.

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