It would take Romania 80 years to reach the average EU15 income level, a survey by the European Intelligence Unit - the analysis division of The Economist, and Accenture consulting firm shows.
EIU's scenario takes into account 3.8% yearly GDP growth per head on the average. It also assumes average EU15 GDP per head will grow at 2% a year.
No other applicant country is seen so discouragingly far behind the income level in the EU. Even Bulgaria is expected to eventually catch up in 63 years.
Romania now registers 26%-27% of the average income per head in the EU. The analysts feel 80 years is an exaggeratedly long interval, in the event Romania manages to maintain a growth pace at least twice higher than that in the EU, in the long run. Poor policymaking and growth-inhibiting requirements of accession cannot be ruled out, though. The thing is only the grandchildren of today's generation stand chances of attaining the EU15 living standards.
At any rate, the catch-up process will move inside the EU in the course of time.
In Portugal for instance, one of the countries easiest to compare with Romania, the nominal GDP per head had kept at about $2,500 until around the accession to the EU, while in Romania, this index had kept below $2,000 for 13 years of reform and went up as late as last year. The closest to the EU15 income level are the people in Estonia and Slovenia, who can hope they will be living at the same standards in 31 years.
The conclusion of the survey by EIU and Accenture is that it will take the new members from central and eastern Europe more than half a century to reach the average EU15 income level. Under a more optimistic scenario, the estimates show they would need "only" 40 years to attain 75% of the EU15 level. This would, however, happen under a "benign" scenario of sound policymaking and benefits from EU membership.
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