If Theodor Stolojan and Mugur Isarescu eventually enter the electoral race this autumn, regardless of what they run for and within what formula, or whether just one of them makes this step, the electoral games will change radically. There are only two of them, and around them, parties are brimming. Only two of them, while there is one more presidential candidate: besides Ion IIiescu, Emil Constantinescu and Petre Roman, there is Teodor Melescanu, who is eyeing the opportunity he created for himself in 1997, along with his party - the Alliance for Romania. Only two of them, but they come with a trust capital any politician could envy.
Who is going to win or lose? Of course, the question will find an exact answer only after the election. But we can expect, on one hand, an overhaul of the political stage in the run-up to the vote, and an impact on the vote results.
First of all, the two men obviously will join the race with a credit of trust that will afford them to lure the undecided lot and those disgruntled with the political class, as well as steal votes from other parties' loyalists. Their chances hang on a simple equation: the ideal combination between their personal capital, the political capital of the party or parties that support them, and the personal capital of the presidential candidates who will go along with each of them.
Among the parliament parties courting them, PDSR stands the least chance of catching the two butterflies in its net. This will impair the party and its candidate for president, Ion Iliescu. PDSR will lose largely because the undecided will fail to come to the polls, but also because part of its peripheral electorate may switch to a different preference, say, Stolojan and Melescanu.
That's not to say the other parties longing to get the two men on their side - ApR, PNL, PD, PN?CD - should feel relaxed. On the contrary, as it becomes increasingly obvious that PDSR and Iliescu are losing chance after chance with Stolojan and Isarescu, interest to enrol the two is growing.
Apparently, the solution is to set up an alliance with different combinations, between these parties. Easier said than done, not merely because of the efficiency issue in the combination between a technocrat, a party and a presidential candidate. There are simply too many presidential candidates for the two technocrats who are up for grabs. Emil Constantinescu, Teodor Melescanu and Petre Roman are not only unwilling to give up candidacy for the top job, they take this as a condition sine qua non in any alliance. Only PNL shied from producing a candidate, which today appears as an advantage rather than a shortcoming. The lack of an arrogant candidate will let the party join the alliance and the technocrat that best serve its interests.
What are the variants? So far, the most clearly shaped is an ApR-PNL alliance, with Stolojan running for Prime Minister and Melescanu for President. This formula is special because Stolojan was the one who came with the initiative and suggested not only the players but a programme to be negotiated, too. Therefore, he becomes less available for the other contenders. Surely, PD wants Stolojan too, but since ApR, a left-of-centre party, has the lead, PD cannot join the alliance because it has a presidential hopeful of its own, Petre Roman.
As to Isarescu, from what he said so far, he appears to be considering another Prime Minister mandate. For now, however, he has only received an official offer from PN?CD, which proposed a tandem with Emil Constantinescu. The problem with this formula is that without the Liberals, it stands little chance of defeating an alliance led by Stolojan. And even with PNL in, it remains a question whether Emil Constantinescu, who is anything but popular with the electorate, could stand up to the charismatic Teodor Melescanu. It is conceivable that Isarescu prefers the team with the most chances and climbs into the ApR-PNL boat (which openly awaits him), than going with a losing bet.
With this in mind, PN?CD and PD could still win something by announcing its consent for a government alliance supporting Stolojan as Prime Minister and going with their own presidential candidates, or they could find a different solution. The question is whether a surprise candidate can still spring up and be able to defeat the two.
Whatever happens, one thing is clear: the entire political class and especially the presidential candidates depend on Stolojan and Isarescu, on their decisions and interests. The two technocrats can pull out of the game some of the eternal candidates to Cotroceni, even before the voters have a say and elect the winner.
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