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Analysts: Exit from recession must not be gauged only by GDP trend

Autor: Claudia Medrega

17.04.2011, 23:43 16

According to the all the data we have at this moment, we will beexiting recession at the end of the first quarter, meaning thatafter two consecutive quarters of economic growth we have directlyand surely stepped into the territory of economic growth inRomania, said Premier Emil Boc on Saturday, in Suceava.

In his turn, the head of the National Forecasting Commission,Ion Ghizdeanu, stated after Wednesday's Government meeting thatRomania might register economic growth of 0.5% in the first quarteragainst the last quarter of 2010 and of 1.3% against the sameperiod of 2010.

The National Statistics Institute is due to announce the data onfirst quarter GDP trend on May 13.

In analysts' opinion, the exit from recession must not bedetermined exclusively in terms of GDP trend. Other indicators,such as the unemployment rate, retail or the trend of real incomesneed also to be tracked.

"(...) Irrespective of the recession exit moment, the economywill not resume its growth rapidly if foreign investment inflows donot accelerate and consumer pessimism persists," believes DanBucşa, head of Bancpost's research department.

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