Facing the prospect of missing its inflation target again, theNBR (National Bank of Romania) has started to fight price rises byindirect interventions on the forex market, helping the leustrengthen against the euro, which can temper pressure on prices ofimport goods, say bank analysts.
The price rises recorded since the beginning of the year and therisk of further price increases could trigger responses from theNBR, both through a gradual increase in interest rates on themonetary market, and through a strengthening of the leu.
"It is increasingly likely that this year's inflation target willbe missed (3% plus/minus one percentage point), with the 2012target (also 3%) in turn threatened. Under the circumstances, thecentral bank is likely to progressively tighten liquidityrequirements on the monetary market," write ING analysts in areport on inflation.
Analysts of Erste/BCR cannot find any other explanation for thevisible leu strengthening in the last few days than the prospectiveindirect interventions by the NBR, fearing that inflation couldremain too high. Yesterday, the exchange rate calculated by the NBRremained below 4.22 lei/euro, but the European Central Bank, whichcollects data later, came up with an exchange rate of 4.2057lei/euro.
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