The economy remained in recession in the fourth quarter of 2010,with a 1% annual decline and a 0.3% quarter-to-quarter decrease,BCR analysts estimate.
The main cause behind the prolonged GDP contraction is estimatedto be the continuously shrinking population consumption, as retailsales went down by more than 7% in December.
Raiffeisen Bank analysts also believe households' fallingconsumption expenses hurt GDP the most in the last quarter of 2010.However, Raiffeisen is counting on positive effects on the side ofindustrial production, narrowing external deficit and risinggovernment expenditures, so that it "bets" on an economic declinenear zero.
EBRD economists are much more downbeat, forecasting a 1.8%annual drop (the worst performance in the region) and a 0.5%quarter-to-quarter decline.
The National Statistics Institute is due to publish tomorrow thefirst estimates on GDP trend in Q4, 2010. For the entire 2010, GDPis expected to have contracted by around 2%.
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