A new IMF mission arrives today in Bucharest and until 7th ofMay it will assess Romania's fulfilment of criteria in the firstquarter of the year. The next tranche, of 850 million euros, couldmost likely to be released in the second half of June.
The arrangement with the IMF could fail in early autumn because thedelayed economic rebound will make it even less likely that theGovernment will commit to unpopular cost cutting measures, sayanalysts, although the current assessment will end in the releaseof a new tranche.
"We maintain our view that the fourth review, which is scheduledfor IMF board discussion in mid-June, is likely to be completedsuccessfully. Looking ahead, we believe that the potential problemsregarding programme implementation are unlikely to emerge beforeSeptember at the time of the fifth review," reads a report ofAmerican bank Citibank.
The bleak growth prospects will make it politically less palatablefor the government to stick to the target or take contingencymeasures if needed, Citi analysts say.
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