Romania's high economic growth will diminish the effects of the financial crisis locally, but there will be a slight impact on the real economy, due to the decline in consumption, says Andrea Moneta, head of the European operations of the Aviva insurance giant, present in Romania on the insurance, pension and investment fund management market.
"I am more optimistic about the countries in Central and Eastern Europe, because they are seeing high economic growth. I believe this growth and the future potential are Romania's 'safety net' during this crisis. I expect the economy to slow down but not as much as in the West. We will not talk of recession in Romania," says Moneta, who was in Bucharest at the end of last week.
Italian-born Moneta, 43, was appointed to the helm of Aviva Europe this summer and coordinates all European markets except the UK. He was also the managing director of Dubai Financial Group for about a year, and was previously part of the top management of the UniCredit group.
As for the current financial crisis, Moneta says he did not anticipate it, although he did see some signs. "I did not expect this crisis and I think every honest person would say the same thing. There were signs that some business models were unsustainable, but it was hard to assess what was going to happen. Yet capitalism is not dead and I believe it is very dangerous to think that. It was not the markets that failed, but the supervision, and the big change after the crisis is over will be the introduction of stricter and more global supervision," Moneta says.
He adds he does not have any investments on the stock market, other than the shares he has in Aviva as a member of the top management and those of his pension fund, rather he prefers more conservative investments. As for private pension funds in Romania, the head of Aviva Europe says that they have a unique chance of buying shares that will see long-term growth, but should not be too opportunistic.
"The great advantage of the private pension market is the fact that it is in its early stages and that its size is not that big. Surely they have a unique chance of buying shares, but they should not be too opportunistic and tied to the market movements. I don't think this crisis will keep clients away from the private pension market," Moneta says.
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