Beyond the noise and the smoke screen that are dampening majortopics, Sunday's elections will lead to major changes in thepolitical landscape, regardless of who the winner is, either MirceaGeoana or Traian Basescu. What can we expect, economicallyspeaking, in either of the cases? Because we will not only have anew president, but also a new government. What we rightly guess isthat if Geoana wins, the Government will be formed around PSD(Social Democratic Party), probably helped by PNL (National LiberalParty) and UDMR (Democratic Alliance of Hungarians in Romania). IfBasescu wins, we can rightly assume he will do everything possibleto build a government around PD-L (Liberal-Democratic Party).
ZF did its research and besides collateral issues such as smallfilms and shorthand minutes, presents the economic credo of thecandidates that might leave its mark on the operation of the futuregovernment.
Traian Basescu
0. Priority zero
This is, as far as Traian Basescu is concerned, therestructuring of public spending, the creation of a medium-termspending framework, adopting a multiannual budget planning andusage methodology, consolidating public finances and revising thestate aid granting rules - these are the urgent measures revealedby Basescu programme.
1. Flat tax
The 16% flat tax must be kept. If deemed extremely necessary,the VAT could be raised, but only if there is no other solution. Heis in favour of a tax exemption for reinvested profit, as he hasrepeatedly stated.
2. Lump-sum tax
Even though criticised, the lump-sum tax was a good measure,because it eliminated part of tax evasion, Basescu has repeatedlysaid.
3. Agreement with the IMF
The agreement with the IMF must be kept, and the obligationsarising from the signing of the loan with the internationalfinancial institutions have to be met as they are. It is spendingthat needs to be cut, Basescu said during his public outings.
4. Exchange rate
The current 4.2-4.3 RON/EUR exchange rate is optimal, it doesnot help much but it does not impoverish the people too mucheither, Basescu has said.
5. National energy company
He wants two national energy companies created to bring togetherelectricity producers that would become major players on theEuropean market, as he has publicly stated.
6. Stock Exchange
PD-L, the party that backs Basescu, devised a bill that allowsraising the stake cap in SIFs from 1% to 5%, which is to be debatedby the Chamber of Deputies.
7 . Real estate sector
A PD-L government will work on continuing the "First Home"scheme in 2010, considering banks still have money for it, publicstatements of the leaders of the party reveal.
8. Agriculture
The number of people working in agriculture has to be reducedfast. We will have 8-10% of the employed people working inagriculture in the next ten to fifteen years, compared with 30% aswe have now. A lot of support is needed for SMEs in agriculture andtourism. A great effort is needed to urbanise villages, Basescu'sprogramme reveals.
9. Healthcare
Hospital management needs to be improved, management needs tobecome professional, hospitals have to be transferred to the localauthorities so as to be put under the public control ofcommunities.
Mircea Geoana
0. Priority zero
In Mircea Geoana's case, this is the exit from the crisisthrough creation of more secure and well-paid jobs. Moreresponsible spending of public funds, investments in homes for poorfamilies, investments in infrastructure and enactment of the fiscalresponsibility law - these are the main priorities included inGeoana's programme.
1. Flat tax
A progressive taxation is needed, but we will not change theflat tax while the crisis is still in progress, we have tointroduce a 20% tax on salaries exceeding 3,000 RON per month.Reinvested profit has to be tax exempt, Geoana has said overtime.
2. Lump-sum tax
It might be dropped, but additional streams of funding need tobe found to replace the lost state revenue, Geoana stated.
3. Agreement with the IMF
Does not question the general terms of the agreement, but doesnot rule out the possibility of PSD government asking the Fund tochange some of the parameters agreed upon, such as state spending,according to some public statements.
4. Exchange rate
An abrupt adjustment of the exchange rate has to be avoided toprotect the people, Geoana has said.
5. National energy company
Is for a single state-held energy holding company, so thatRomania could become a real champion in the energy business, as hehimself said.
6. Stock Exchange
Has publicly advocated suspending the tax on the profit madefrom sale of shares in 2010, too, in order to encourage investmentson the Stock Exchange, a step also backed by PNL.
7. Real estate
Is for building 50,000 social housing units, fully equipped andpaid for with public funds, according to his programme.
8. Agriculture
Investments in agricultural product processing centres need tobe encouraged, as do trades specific to the rural environment.Young people need to be encouraged to stay in rural areas and openmodern farms. The Romanian village has to be brought out ofisolation and the gap that separates it from the city has to benarrowed, the candidate's programme reveals.
9. Healthcare
Insurance for every family, adequate medical care, modernhospitals and affordable medicines for vulnerable people. Anational healthcare park needs to be created, as stipulated inGeoana's programme.
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