Romania was still in recession in the first quarter, and hopesfor a rebound have been moved to the second quarter of 2010,analysts say.
Analysts have revised estimates for the first quarter as aresult of the lower than expected performance of the industrialoutput in February and of the continued decline of the constructionsector and consumer spending.
"The economy remained in negative territory, witnessing 0.4%decline compared with the same time in 2009. Services andconstruction dragged the GDP down. The industry had a strong startof the year but slowed down in February. Still, the contribution ofthe industry was positive. A positive influence from agriculture isof not out of the question, either, considering the base effect,"commented Rozalia Pal, chief economist of UniCredit-TiriacBank.
She added the construction sector had yet to rebound and theinvestments were negative, as well.
The IMF is preparing to revise this year's economic growthforecast for Romania downwards from 1.3% to 0.8-1% of GDP. UK'sBarclays' bank analysts, too, have recently announced the recessionmay be W-shaped.
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