Industrial output in September went down at a visibly slowerpace from a year ago, to 4%, after having declined at a pace of 18%in the early 2009.
At the same time, retail in September posted a 13.9% annualiseddecrease from the June low of -17.3%, according to INS (NationalStatistics Institute) adjusted data. The fall came amid the 21%decline in car fuel retail and the 10% lower sales of non-foodproducts. Sales of foods products, beverages and tobacco shrank by7.9%. Governor Mugur Isarescu during his last Friday speechforecast INS would publish better data pertaining to the Septemberprogression of industrial output, which he optimistically placed ona "slightly positive trend". "It was the first half that wascatastrophic. We hope a positive trend gains momentum and the nextsign pointing to the progression of economy should not be WorldWide Web (www, namely repeated ups and downs i.e.)," says FlorinPogonaru, chairman of the Business People's Association of Romania(AOAR).
The trade deficit in the first few months of the year stood at6.9bn euros, down 11bn euros from the same period of last year, inthe context where imports declined at a twice faster pace thanexports.
"A rebound is out of the question. In our field (that oftextiles i.e.), economic operators are, on the contrary, highlywary about these last months of the year, September, October,November. Next year, a physical output increase may come on aconsumption rally in Western markets, but not on the domesticmarket," says Maria Grapini, general manager of Pasmatex group ofTimisoara.
In the first nine months of the year, output dropped by 8.5%from the same period of last year, after in the first eight monthsthe decline had reached 9.2%, taking into account the adjusted datapublished by the INS. "This is an improvement. Emotionally, whenone gets from a 45% turnover decline in the first half to a 20%drop in the second half and when this September starts resemblinglast September, one's undoubtedly happy. It was the first half thatwas catastrophic," Florin Pogonaru says.
Along major industrial categories, September brought annualiseddeclines of 11.5% in the durable goods industry, of 10% in thecurrent use goods industry, of 4% in the intermediary goodsindustry and of 2% in the capital goods industry. The energyindustry grew by 3.7%.
"Consumption exuberance will go down. We'll see sales intraditional stores drop, with people shifting to discountretailers," Pogonaru says.
Pentru alte știri, analize, articole și informații din business în timp real urmărește Ziarul Financiar pe WhatsApp Channels
