"Good news", "the biggest surprise", "much better than expected"or "a ray of light in these dark times". This is what foreignanalysts say about the performance of Romania's economy in thethird quarter, which might be the last quarter of decline accordingto the latest forecasts. This is the first signal that may suggestthe bottom of the crisis was reached and the rebound is due tobegin.
The economy shrank by 0.7% in the third quarter compared withthe second, but the decline pace was slower than in the secondquarter, when it reached 1.1% though, compared with the first threemonths of the year. The annual decline for the third quarter stoodat 7.1%, while the market expected a contraction of 9% in annualterms and even worse, in some analysts' case.
"Romania was probably the biggest surprise. The contribution ofthe various sectors can only be guessed. Domestic demand isexpected to have remained weak, so improvements are probably comingfrom foreign demand and increase in stocks," comments RainerSinger, Erste Group's chief economist for the region.
In the opinion of analysts, the rebound of the industry and mostlikely of the services sector may have had a beneficial influencethat is hard to overlook on the positive progression of the economyin the third quarter. A massive positive contribution to the GDPgrowth also came from net exports, given that imports were twicefaster to go down than exports. At the same time, agriculture, too,might have had a beneficial influence on the household consumptionand exports, analysts believe. On the other hand, the contributionof domestic demand probably remained negative, as companies cutinvestments during this difficult period, with a downward trendalso estimated for consumer spending.
"Finally some good news" comments Lars Christensen, chiefeconomist of Danish bank Danske, in turn. "Romania was badly hit bythe economic crisis and even worse by the political crisis. Still,the data on the GDP progression in the third quarter are a ray oflight in these dark times for Romania."
The data announced by the National Statistics Institute (INS)are just some advance estimates, with the preliminary version ofthe first nine-month data to be published on December 3.
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