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Isărescu’s new dilemma: How much can the euro slide without attracting speculators again

Autor: Liviu Chiru

08.05.2011, 23:39 86

The NBR is no longer thinking favourably about leu'sstrengthening further, after the exchange rate has slid by around4% since the start of the year. The rising leu is attractingportfolio investors, going into speculative bubbles, and foreigncurrency lending, says NBR governor Mugur Isărescu.

"Allowing the domestic currency to go up to dampen importedinflation can attract rising portfolio investments. More portfolioinvestments can lead to rising asset prices. Putting up with leuappreciation to help inflation may not be possible in terms ofrisks generated at the level of private sector balance sheets,"Isărescu told the students of "Transilvania" University of Braşovat the end of last week.

The NBR is facing a dilemma again, in the context whereinflation seems to be climbing steadily, going beyond the 8%threshold this spring, almost double the level of a year ago.

After the VAT hike shock of last summer, pressures related tosoaring fuel and foodstuff prices internationally have startedbeing felt since autumn. In parallel, the economy is struggling toexit an over two-year recession, and loan demand, though weak, isforeign currency focused.

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