The first session of the Stock Exchange has usually ended with an average 4.3% increase of the BET index and of 7.1% for BET-FI index over the last five years.
Brokers expect the Bucharest Stock Exchange to repeat the same positive trend of the last few years in its first trading session, as buyers are traditionally more present on the market than sellers in the first few days.
Today is the last day of trading on the Bucharest Stock Exchange and as such the last day when investors can buy shares to benefit from a potential increase of the market in the first session of 2008.
The decline of the last few sessions, especially that of SIF shares, could be followed by a market rebound in the first session in 2008, if the heavy sale pressure of the last few days vanishes.
On the other hand, some brokers warn that the trend of the Stock Exchange in the first few days of 2008 could also be influenced by how the international stock markets closed 2007, as the bullish sentiment at the beginning of the year is not as strong there as it was over the past years.
"I believe next year will start on the same positive note as the last few years. I expect significant increases in the first few days of trading, as the pressure to sell of the last few days should go away. There usually aren't many sellers on the market in the first few trading sessions, which his dominated by buyers," says Rares Nilas, chief executive of BT Securities.
The year 2007 started with a 5% surge of BET on the Stock Exchange in the first day, while SIFs gained 8.6% on the average.
In 2006, first-day increases were 3.5% for BET and 6.1% for BET-FI, while in 2005, the market started with a 6% rise of BET and a 10% rise of BET-FI.
"I believe the Stock Exchange will repeat the pattern of the last few years and start on the rise. I expect an about 10% gain in the first month," stated Adrian Ceuca, deputy general manager of Broker Cluj. Over the last five years, the average increase of the BET index has stood at 9.1% in the first week and at 15.6% in the first month. The average increase in January accounted for about one third of the average annual growth of 2003-2007.
This January, BET index gained 8.8% and has gone up by 18% since the beginning of the year.
"I think the trend of the Stock Exchange at the beginning of next year will be very much up to the developments on the foreign stock markets at the end of the year, considering trading there stops later than here. Compared with the previous years, we are now influenced by what happens on the international markets, and the sentiment there is not as bullish as in the previous years," explained Daniel Pocorea, deputy general manager of BRD Securities.
"The figures of the past years are interesting, yet I wouldn't bet all my money on the Stock Exchange hoping to make a year's worth of bank interest in several days at the beginning of next year. I believe the Stock Exchange will be quite hectic next year, with high volatility, which will implicitly make it less predictable," says Razvan Pasol, Intercapital Investment chairman.
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