The National Bank kept the key interest rate on RON-denominatedloans at 6.25% a year for the fourth time in a row, but thedecision sparked a rift among analysts, with some saying themonetary policy should be eased, in order to support the economy,while others see the danger of inflation returning, which needs tobe fought against.
All commercial bank analysts anticipated yesterday that theinterest rate would be kept unchanged, with more than threequarters of them believing this will be replicated in the nextsession of the NBR (National Bank of Romania), scheduled forNovember 2nd. Around a fifth, however, are expecting the NBR tomake RON loans more expensive towards the end of the year, amid aninflation outbreak, according to an internal survey conducted bythe Association of Financial-Banking Analysts in Romania. Forbankers, the persistence of higher interest rates means thepossibility of higher revenues.
Conversely, analysts closer to the commercial segment andbusinesspeople are asking more and more persistently for cheaperRON loans and for a more flexible exchange rate, measures thatwould stimulate the economy, which has been in recession for over ayear.
"In a world in which Romania rose by 3% I would say inflation(which climbed to 7.6% in August, after the VAT hike in July from19% to 24% i.e.) was a problem, but we are not in such a position.The NBR has got its priorities wrong," says investment banker MateiPaun.
In the first half of 2010 the Gross Domestic Product was 1.5%lower in real terms than in the similar period of last year.
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