Catalin Parvu, head of the local subsidiary of the Greek atPiraeus Bank, says he is optimistic about 2011 and expects awide-scale resumption of lending, be it just because banks will beforced to boost their revenue base.
"We will see a lending rise, but it will be one-digit. We havealso seen two-digit growth plans, but I don't think this ispossible," says Parvu. The rise cannot be spectacular consideringthat 2011 starts off with even less signs of optimism than 2010,when the majority of forecasts indicated an around 2% economicgrowth. However, recent figures show that the result is more likelyto be close to -2%, and now for 2011 most analysts only dare expectstagnation, or insignificant growth at best.
"We have the exports engine, which is working, but the otherengine, domestic consumer spending, needs to be restarted, as well,where there is great potential at least to replace imports," Parvusays.
Under the circumstances, the first to see a rebound arecorporate loans, both for exporters and for competitive small andmedium-sized enterprises (SMEs). Only later will financing forretail clients be revived, because there is a lag between the timecompanies see their businesses back on their feet and the time itis reflected in the wages paid and in an increase in the number ofemployees.
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