The economy fully felt the effects of the VAT increase and ofthe 25% cuts to public sector employees' salaries in the thirdquarter, after the temporary rebound recorded in the secondquarter, with analysts forecasting a contraction of the GrossDomestic Product (GDP) that ranges between 1.5% and close to 3%against the second quarter.
Raiffeisen Bank analysts expect a 1.5% GDP contraction in thethird quarter, while ING Bank expects the economy to fall by 2.8%in the third quarter against the second quarter in seasonallyadjusted data, and by 4.1% in annual rate, following the austeritymeasures taken.
A pleasant surprise could come as far as agricultural production isconcerned - it was good this year, and traditionally contributes alarger share of the GDP in the second part of the year.
According to Raiffeisen analysts, statistical data announced overthe last few days for industrial production, constructions, andtrade fuel expectations of a weak GDP in the third quarter.
"We believe the real GDP contracted by around 1.5% year-on-year inthe third quarter, but a better result cannot be ruled out in caseof a good agricultural crop."
In August, industrial production, one of the leading indicators inthe economy, climbed by a mere 0.1% against the previous month,after the 1% decline recorded in July. So Raiffeisen analystsexpect the industry to contribute less to GDP in the third quarterthan in the second.
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