After the summer saw several analysts gave as certain that theeconomy would fall by up to 3% this year and potentially remain inrecession in 2011, after third-quarter data on GDP progression wereannounced, a feeling of optimism emerged.
Even the most pessimistic GDP forecast, that of ING Bank, hasbeen modified, with the bank now expecting the economy to find itsway into positive territory next year.
For this year, ING Bank has revised forecasts from a 2.8%contraction to a 1.6% decline, and adjusted next year's GDPforecast to a 0.2% growth instead of a 1.8% decline.
The Statistics Institute announced a 0.7% GDP decline in the thirdquarter of the year against April-June on Friday, better thanmarket expectations (-1.3%) and than ING's estimate (-2.5%).
BCR, the biggest bank on the market, modified its forecast of thisyear's economic trend upwards, expecting the GDP decline to amountto 2.1% instead of the 3% contraction anticipated after the VAT wasraised to 24%.
For 2011 the BCR forecast on the GDP trend remains unmodified, itexpects a 1.2% rise - the lowest in the region.
Officially, the IMF anticipates a 1.5% economic growth for nextyear, but since the start of the IMF arrangement in the spring of2009 official forecasts of the institution have been constantly"one step behind reality," being adjusted downwards from onequarter to the next.
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