The Americans' view isshared by increasingly more analysts, but so far leu strengtheningforecasts have been more reserved.
The NBR on Friday calculatedan exchange rate of 4.2048 lei per euro on Friday, 1.16 bani (1 leu- 100 bani) more than the previous rate, with the depreciationbeing determined by a new wave of investor risk aversion worldwide,following the Japan catastrophe. The leu had recorded a nine-monthhigh on March 8, at 4.1869 lei/euro, almost 2% less than at the endof last year.
The inflation leap inFebruary prompted many to believe the NBR (National Bank ofRomania) will encourage a leu strengthening, which would counterthe pressures of fuel and food becoming more expensiveinternationally.
"We acknowledge that aslowdown in inflation in the second half of 2011 and our bullishview on the RON, targeting euro to reach 4 lei by the end of theyear, make a strong case for rate cuts. However, inflation outlookis not that benign looking beyond the favourable base effect (VAThike in July 2010). We expect inflation trending to 6% during nextyear, on the back of a reviving domestic demand, with the risks onthe upside due to food and fuel prices," note JP Morgananalysts.
In turn, Royal Bank ofScotland analysts write in "trip notes" after a visit to Bucharestthat the euro could fall to 4.1 lei over the next sixmonths.
"The Central bank has beenselling euros recently, probably aiming for a stronger currency inview of worse than expected inflation numbers. We think that the 4%per annum positive carry of six-month forwards is attractive if thelow volatility leu environment continues," says DemetriosEfstathiou, analyst with the Royal Bank of Scotland.
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