The short-term foreign debt, which reflects the potentially volatile capital inflows and the export of credits in foreign currency inclusively, has increased by more than four times over the last couple of years, to 13.2 billion euros, the value registered last November, according to NBR data.
Under the circumstances, the short-term debt accounts for almost one third of Romania's foreign debt, considering that it stood at 15% two years ago and at 7% in 2000. According to the central bank's estimates, the surge in the short-term foreign debt also reflects the export of credits in foreign currency, a trend that started last year among several banks, which are part of certain European groups. The banks resorted to such a solution so as to be able to continue granting loans in foreign currency, despite the ceiling imposed by NBR.
The credits in foreign currency, which the banks have transferred abroad and which were reflected by the decrease in the net assets' value registered with NBR, account for approximately one third of the short-term debt, according to the National Bank's calculations. The central bank admitted that it could not ascertain the exact number of "exports", but said that this trend has certainly changed the official dynamics of credits, which was higher in reality.
The medium and long-term debt has seen a slower growth pace. It grew by 49% over the last couple of years, reaching the value of 27.2 billion euros last November.
According to the NBR statistics, the private entities account for the bulk of the short-term debt, which mainly reflects the resources attracted by commercial banks or by companies from the foreign groups they are part of. NBR officials have warned in recent years about the fast growth seen by these capitals, which increases the risk of fluctuations in the exchange rate.
The national currency has been an attractive placement since 2004, as it ensured almost constantly high interests that overlapped with a trend of appreciation against the euro, even in nominal terms, causing high yields.
The total foreign debt amounted to 40.4 billion euros last November, up by 30% compared with December 2005. The gross domestic product amounted to 97 billion euros last year, according to the estimates, thus the debt would stand at some 41% of the GDP.
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