Anybody placing a higher bid? Today at 17.00hrs, Banca Comerciala Romana''s privatisation committee will have on its desk the binding financial bids of the investors left in the race for taking over 62% in the largest Romanian bank.
The price is the most important factor in separating competitors, with the highest two bidders to be selected for a final confrontation.
The most valuable privatisation in Romania, and, according to the US Goldman Sachs bank'' analysts, one of the most expensive on the banking market of the Central and Eastern Europe, will be the result of the clash of a series of large banks, less willing to pay a high price and of several smaller banks, aggressive in their financial bids.
Now that Dutch ABN Amro bank has withdrawn from the race, the state can rely on the participation of nine banks in the final stage of the privatisation: Fortis, Banco Comercial Portugues, National Bank of Greece, Banca Intesa, Deutsche Bank, Erste Bank, Dexia, KBC and BNP Paribas. This last bank was rumoured to quit last week, as the board of the French institution had not made a decision.
If this happens, Deutsche Bank would remain the most powerful investor in terms of financial strength. How much would the Germans be willing to pay for a bank whose assets have gone past 7.3bn euros and the six-month profits stood at 121 million euros, though? "There is a price limit considered, but this takes into account the growth potential of the bank," sources close to the German bank say, specifying that its experts did not come across any surprises in BCR''s data room. On the other hand, Deutsche Bank, as well as the other investors, is considering the investments that will need to be made after the takeover. Anyway, it is hard to believe that the banks that have studied the insides of BCR over the last few months have arrived at very different appraisals, so that the selection will rather be based on the strategic arguments of some players, such as the last chance of entering the Central and Eastern European market or the net consolidation of the position already held in the region.
Sources close to some of the investors in the race say the financial bids that will be submitted will be in the neighbourhood of 2bn euros, which would point towards BCR being appraised at some 3.2bn euros.
"The figures mentioned by the Goldman Sachs or KBW analysts make no impact on the bids of the potential buyers. Were all these figures considered, they would lead to an average per client of almost 1,000 euros, the same as for the banks in the West. Which is too high a value," the representative of one of the European banks in the race for the takeover of BCR told Ziarul Financiar.
As for the investors that are preparing to submit binding bids, the only doubts yesterday were related to whether French bank BNP Paribas would be taking this step or not. Rumours on the market last week said BNP had requested an extension of the deadline to submit bids from the privatisation committee. The request is said to have been turned down. On the other hand, sources on the market say that as of Friday morning, the BNP Paribas board had yet to approve the submission of a bid for Banca Comerciala Romana.
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