The local advertising market will not maintain the same growth rate that it registered over the last few years and could even enter a period of crisis, according to Zoltan Szigeti, president of the communications firm thegroup, which last year posted turnover worth around 51.8 million euros, up 80% on 2006.
"The advertising market is estimated to have increased by 30-40% over the last two years. This year, there will probably be an around 20-25% increase, and next year a 10-15% or 20% increase at most. If we are talking about a mere 10% increase, this is no longer considered market growth," Zoltan Szigeti told ZF.
In 2007, the advertising market was estimated at 500 million euros, and, irrespective of its growth rate, remains attractive for foreign investors, given that the American and European markets have either stagnated or registered declines. If the growth rate slows down, Szigeti believes the local market could become "desperate and competitive", and international groups could start to take over local companies.
"If this happens, the companies will not be Romanian anymore, but multinationals with 15% growth targets from one year to the next, amid mere market growth of 7%. This is when the real trouble starts, because salaries have gone through the roof, especially for those in senior positions, and things will be thrown out of balance," Szigeti explained.
Therefore, in two years' time, the market could see a genuine crisis, which Szigeti believes occurs cyclically. "I witnessed this 7-8 years ago, when the global market was on the up, and there were no acquisitions. When the global advertising market declines, acquisitions take place in Eastern Europe - all the agencies were bought in the Czech Republic, Poland, and Hungary. Later, the market started to grow again, and the acquisitions ceased.
Last year, the global advertising market went up, and this year it will go down," Szigeti added. Under the circumstances, it is anticipated that multinationals will look towards other developing areas.
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