The IMF is considering the risk that 2011 could be the thirdconsecutive year of recession for the Romanian economy, recognisingfor the first time in its calculations the possibility of a 1% GDPdecline, say sources taking part in discussions with the Fund'smission present in Bucharest over the last few days to "outline"next year's draft budget.
"A novelty would be that the IMF is considering a -1% negativescenario, with expectations ranging between -1% and +1%, after sofar they had only been talking about economic growth for nextyear," the quoted sources told ZF. Officially, the IMF forecasts1.5% economic growth for next year, but since the beginning of thestand-by arrangement in the spring of 2009, official forecasts ofthe institution have consistently proven "one step behind reality,"being adjusted downwards from one quarter to the next.
On the other hand, official sources say Premier Emil Bocdismisses a recession scenario as a working hypothesis for 2011,and asks for a budget built on expectations of economic growth,albeit a modest one.
Sebastian Vladescu, former finance minister until September,estimates Romania has a 50% chance of the economy crawling on theborder between recession and growth, with the GDP trend expected torange between -1% and Ă1%. Even worse, he believes there is a 25%probability of 2011 bringing a GDP decline of more than 1%, withexternal factors expected to play an important part in eachscenario.
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