Players on the forex market, where nearly 400 billion euros aretraded every year, say the euro will remain in the 4.2 RON regionthis year, as well.
The euro will remain above 4.2 RON at least until March, althoughthe RON started the year with a surprising appreciation, after theexchange rate had seen only slight fluctuations around 4.3 RON pereuro in the first part of 2010.
Only towards the yearend is a stronger RON possible, but until thenthere remain a few questions, say experts who answered ZF's requestfor a forecast on the euro's progression across 2011.
In 2010, the level of the exchange rate helped exports grow byrates of nearly 30%, but this year the challenges are significant,considering that foreign demand will be affected by the austeritymeasures taken by most European countries.
On the other hand, the current exchange rate level is extremelyburdensome for those who borrowed in foreign currency in 2007 and2008, when the euro was worth 20% less, with their difficultiesbeing apparent in the increasingly fast rise in latepayments.
Claudiu Cercel, deputy chief executive in charge of financialmarkets at BRD, sees the euro at 4.25 RON at the end of the firstquarter. For the rest of the year he anticipates a slightappreciation of the Romanian currency, and an exchange rate of 4.20RON/euro towards the end of the year.
Only slightly more optimistic are the BCR analysts, who in Decemberanticipated the euro would fluctuate between 4.1 and 4.3 RON, arange only slightly narrower than in 2010.
The RON started 2011 on the right foot, experiencing a considerableappreciation from 4.28 RON/euro in the last trading session inDecember, to 4.26 RON/euro. However, analysts say it is too earlyto talk about a reliable trend of appreciation.
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