The biggest bank in Romania has attracted financial bids of 1.7-1.8bn euros to 3.2bn euros from the seven investors, which shows that BCR was appraised at 2.7-2.8bn euros to 5.17bn euros, sources familiar with the privatisation process told Ziarul Financiar.
The cumulated value of the submitted bids amounted to 17bn euros.
The best offer for the 61.88% in Banca Comerciala Romana (BCR) came from Austria''s Erste Bank, 3.2bn euros, followed by Portugal''s Millennium with a bid that was a bit higher than 3bn euros, the quoted sources added.
Both banks will begin talks with the Romanian authorities next week, during which they may raise their bids, so that the stake put up for sale is expected to be worth 3.5bn euros.
The announcement that BCR was going to be taken over by either Erste or Millennium caused the first signs of unrest about their financial capacity to swallow one of the largest banks in the region.
"This is a good business for the Government and bad for Romania," commented the representative of one of the initial favourites of the race for BCR, once the two finalists were announced.
The announcement has already produced its first effects on both Erste and Millennium.
After the Privatisation Committee of the bank revealed the names of the finalists, BCP Millennium''s stock dropped by some 7.6%, with the Portuguese bank reaching a 6.6bn-euro market capitalisation.
Erste Bank witnessed a slight increase of 0.5% on the Vienna Stock Exchange and its capitalisation reached 10.33bn euros yesterday.
The analysts were rather sceptical about the capacity of the Portuguese bank to come up with the necessary resources to buy BCR.
"If BCP wins at BCR, then the short-term outlook is negative, but could become positive in the long-run, four or five years," comments Tiago Dionisio, a BPI analyst quoted by Reuters.
"Assuming even a 3.5bn-euro price target for BCR, BCP, which has a market capitalisation of 7.2bn euros, does not have surplus capital and would need to raise most of it from the market," says Antonio Ramirez, analyst of investment bank Merrill Lynch.
At the same time, the analysts of UBS (an investment bank that advises Millenium for BCR) feel the Portuguese will probably be unable to beat Erste in this race.
The opinions in the Romanian banking sector vary with regard to the prospects of BCR in case it is taken over by Erste or Millenium.
"This is what happens when the price determines the result. This may have been the plan from the moment the selection criteria were set," says Rasvan Radu, the chairman of Italian Unicredito bank.
"This is a complete surprise. I don''t believe this is a good result for a more powerful competitive environment on the Romanian market," commented Petre Bunescu, vice-president of BRD-SocGen, the second-leading bank in the system.
"It''s a very good thing that those who pay should win. It is best to have dynamic hungry players enter the market and take positions rather than the large groups. The higher the price, the more substantial the commitment," says Mihai Bogza, BancPost chairman.
adrian.mirsanu@zf.ro ; razvan.voican@zf.ro
Pentru alte știri, analize, articole și informații din business în timp real urmărește Ziarul Financiar pe WhatsApp Channels
