It is obvious this year''s floods will affect the economic growth target, although officials have yet to release any figures in this regard.
The only estimate belongs to the National Forecast Commission (CNP) and is contained in the so-called autumn forecast. The CNP chairman, Ion Ghizdeanu, first presented this document for Ziarul Financiar, showing an estimate of 5.7% for the economic growth, only 0.3% lower than the initial forecast.
"The economy has suffered as a result of some unfavourable factors," Ion Ghizdeanu said, explaining the revisions of the economic data. These factors include, as the CNP head says, the floods, the too fast appreciation of the RON, the high petroleum price, the deregulation of the trade with China and the modest economic growth in the European Union.
"It is obvious that the weather events that took place in Romania will influence the macroeconomic parameters, that the economic growth will be affected," Finance Minister Sebastian Vladescu in his turn stated.
The latest estimates by CNP show the economic growth of this year will stand at 5.7%, instead of 6%, consumption will increase more than initially expected (9.6% instead of 7%), and investments will slow down (9.8% growth instead of 11.4%).
If the forecasts announced are to be met, the Gross Domestic Product needs to go up by some 6.3% in the second half of the year, after only 4.9% growth in the first half, and after having witnessed the slowest growth in the last few years in the second quarter.
Moreover, the industry growth was reassessed at 4%, compared with the 5.7% estimate made this spring, and the agriculture will end the year with a 1.2% decline, compared with the forecast made six months ago, which pointed to 2.8% growth. Another novelty in this autumn forecast is the estimate of the 2009 economic parameters for the first time, when the GDP is expected to reach 127bn euros, exports will stand at 36.7bn euros, imports will stand at nearly 53bn euros and the foreign debt at over 32bn euros, while the foreign currency reserve will reach nearly 25bn euros. The average net salary across the economy in 2009 will be of more than 300 euros, 50% higher than it is now, with the number of people employed in the economy being more than half a million higher than at the moment.
Going back to 2005, after the economic developments registered thus far, the estimates of the National Forecast commission seem unjustifiably optimistic. The Gross Domestic Product should go up by more than 6.2% in the second half for the 5.7% forecast to be attained. "It is an optimistic target indeed, but we have data that tell us it is not a wild guess," Ghizdeanu explained.
"The economic growth will rely on services and constructions, as the latter get the entire economy in motion," the CNP head said. "Once the rain and flood period is over, the reconstruction of the infrastructure will be able to begin and the constructions, metallurgical and construction supplies industries will witness a strong rebound," he added.
Services are already at their highest for the last few years (6.9% in the first half), while their growth is put at 7.5% in the autumn forecast. On the other hand, constructions suffered from the halt of the public highway building contracts, which caused them to grow by only 3.9% in the first half, from a spring estimate of 10.2%.
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