The IMF is preparing a downward revision of the economic growthforecast for Romania this year, from 1.3% to 0.8-1% of GDP, giventhat the weak performance of the industry in February and thecontinuation of the trade decline are considered disappointing byspecialists in terms of the chances for an economic rebound.
The Fund, however, continues to believe that the rebound mighthappen in the second half of the year.
"The Romanian economy has been in intensive care. (...) It's like apatient that came in to the hospital with a high fever. The feveris gone, but the patient is still weak," Jeffrey Franks, the headof the IMF mission in Romania said on the "Dupa 20 de ani" ("20Years Later") show broadcast by ProTV. He believes the economy willsee positive growth in the second half of his year, which will bethe start of a rebound, but warns that the levels before the crisiswill not be reached, at least at first.
On the other hand, Barclays Capital, the investment arm of one ofthe biggest UK banks, believes that recent data about Romania'seconomy performance - industrial output, trade, construction, inthe first quarter suggest that the economy is still weak and thatthe recession appears to be W-shaped.
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