Unless it adopts the euro, Romania has no solutions for theproblems of an economy that already operates with the Europeancurrency, while we are arguing over a RON-denominated interest,which now only has an impact on a marginal market, says MisuNegritoiu, general manager of ING Bank.
"Hungary can afford the luxury of not thinking about the euro,because it has markets that operate in forints, Poland has marketsthat use zlotys, but we don't have markets that work with RON. Ithink it is feasible for us to make the most important correctionsin 2010-2012 because we primarily need economy's basic balances tobe re-established, not actual convergence, which we will neverachieve."
He believes the NBR (National Bank of Romania) could do more tostimulate lending in RON by cutting its interest rate, but, as longas its message is that the RON will be stable in relation to theeuro, and clients see the interest rate gap, they are sure to takeout a loan in euros, because its cost is preferable even if the RONdepreciates further. The banker says beneath the cover of themonetary policy's relative stability, dramatic things happen deepinside the real economy, there is a struggle to avoid bankruptcy, afight for survival.
"Very few companies are thinking about taking out new loans,most are concerned about restructuring already accumulated debt.There is no substance to talks about the so-called conflict betweenbanks and companies, because we are even more interested in abusiness not going bankrupt than its owners, considering ourexposure. There are, however, situations when they either don'tlisten to us, or continue to ask for money, although the volume ofsales has gone down significantly." He believes the Government isunable to manage complex measures meant to stimulate the economy,and that the crisis will end on its own.
"The idea that economic growth will be resumed in the fourthquarter is just a statistical speculation, based on the fact thatin the fourth quarter of 2008, we already had a less noticeddecline, and now it is to be expected that the last three months ofthe year will not be as low compared with the fourth quarter of2008 as the first two quarters were. This is just irrelevantwordplay and colourful light show because the full-year declinewill be about 8%."
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