Romania will start a new round of talks with the IMF and theEuropean Commission on Monday, with the spectre of the third yearof recession in a row looming, as the GDP could go down by 0.5% in2011, official sources say.
After the 7% decline in 2009, the revised contraction forecastconsidered for 2010 ranges from 1.5% to 1.8% of GDP.
The new estimate is already regarded as optimistic consideringmany analysts working for banks see the decline at 3%. This spring,the IMF had anticipated that the Romanian economy would "take off"in 2011 and grow by 5.1%, yet even the calculations of theinstitution in Washington continue to be upset by reality.
The letter of intent that the Romanian authorities sent to theIMF management on June 16 was built around a zero or slightlynegative economic growth scenario. After the VAT hike to 24%, theFinance Ministry started to consider an at least 1.5% drop.
Catalin Pauna, the World Bank's chief economist in Romania,however, sees the visible slowdown of the economic decline comparedwith last year as a good thing.
"The economic contraction in 2010 will be much lower than in2009. Romania is slowly recovering. It is emerging out of theeconomic crisis. The GDP adjustment will follow a slightly downwardtrend."
Pentru alte știri, analize, articole și informații din business în timp real urmărește Ziarul Financiar pe WhatsApp Channels
