The high interest of the banking clients to sell euros showed in the decline of the exchange rate by 1,893 ROL on Friday to 36,133 ROL/EUR and stands every chance of pressuring for a decline in rates, as expected by dealers.
The exchange rate adjustment after NBR's exercise in simulating capital outflows brought the ROL back as the currency that is the fastest to gain ground against the euro and the dollar on the screens of the foreign investors. Ever since early November when NBR announced its decision to allow the exchange rate to be more flexible, the ROL has gained 12%.
Analysts say the ROL cannot but follow the appreciation trend of the Polish zloty and of the Magyar forint, for instance. Besides this appreciation potential, the foreign capitals are still powerfully attracted to the interests on ROL, which are still high.
The National Bank displays a 15.75% intervention rate, albeit raising cash for even less than 11% from the market, while the central bank of Hungary uses a 9% benchmark rate, the highest of all European Union member countries. The Central European Bank's benchmark rate is of only 2% across the eurozone, which justifies the interest in the high rates on the Romanian market.
Under the circumstances, the dealers in Bucharest say the ROL will continue to gain strength in the next few days, following foreign currency sell orders from clients.
"If the central bank does not intervene again, I expect the ROL to continue to strengthen, albeit slower than in the last few days, given the clients' appetite to sell," says Dorin Badea, Banc Post's head dealer.
He believes the large volume of foreign currency sales is due to those many clients that had been waiting for a better exchange rate and, under the current circumstances, emerged on the market. Their sales added to the speculative funds that were attracted by the better terms.
The forex market opened at 36,500/36,700 ROL/EUR on Friday. Foreign currency was sold all through the trading session, with exchange rates going down to a day's low of 35,900/36,100 ROL/EUR. The euro closed the day at 36,100/36,300 ROL.
The volumes traded on the market remained large on Friday, the dealers say, even though lower than in the previous days. The market saw an about 138 million-euro foreign currency surplus, with clients having bought 250 million euros.
The volume of interbank operations was 557 million euros, which pushed the total traded volume on the market at an all time high of 808 million euros.
"The clients maintain a very big appetite for sale, so that I expect the euro to go down to 35,000 ROL throughout the week, unless the NBR intervenes at least once, to sustain the exchange rate. After all, the surplus against the total clients was of approximately 400 million euros," says Aurelian Mihailescu, Raiffeisen Bank dealer.
The central bank intervened on the forex market on Friday, attracting 17,100bn ROL at the planned interest. The maximum accepted interest was 12.83% a year, while the average interest at which it raised the cash went down to 10.66% a year.
liviu.chiru@zf.ro ; razvan.voican@zf.ro
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