Five months into the year, Romania's trade deficit reached 2.31bn euros, up nearly 27% from the same time last year.
This strong deficit growth trend continued despite the fact that exports performed better than expected and slightly outpaced imports in April and May.
In spite of this rebound in terms of exports (which has been largely circumstantial), Romania imported 9.7bn euros worth of goods in the first five months of 2004, while export revenues amounted to 7.4bn euros.
The trade balance in May registered a 672 million-euro deficit, 23% higher than in May 2003. At the same time, it increased 35% in comparison to April, when the monthly deficit amounted to 499 million euros.
This result was obtained even though exports made faster progress, increasing 23.8% compared with May 2003, outrunning imports that went up only 23.6%.
Exports increased to 1.56bn euros, while imports were worth 2.23bn euros.
If considering the first five months together, imports still outpaced exports. Exports throughout January - May reached 7.37bn euros, 18.4% more than in the corresponding period last year. On the other hand, imports rose 20.2% to 9.69bn euros.
What is behind this solid export growth? It's a result which contradicts the pessimistic expectations of a stagnation of revenues due to structural immobility, the prevalence of low added value goods, as well as the fiscal pressure put on companies in the export business.
The data regarding export structures, classified by type of goods, points to a spectacular growth in the sale of metallurgical products. Such sales increased by nearly 37% in five months, the highest growth rate of all merchandise categories, accounting for 15% of total revenues, as they amounted to 1.1bn euros.
Romania's exports have therefore become more reliant on the favourable circumstances on the international steel, aluminium and ship building markets. The jump occurred in February, when after having increased 1.4% year-on-year in January, they surged 21% compared with the same month in 2003.
The growth pace continued at more than 20% over the next few months.
"We cannot talk about the result of a gradual process that would explain such a growth in exports, which could be sustained in the long run. The explanation very much resides in the higher demand on the international steel market, which showed in spectacular price increases, a situation that already looks like it's coming to an end," commented Radu Craciun, senior analyst at ABN Amro Bank. He added that if exports of metallurgical products had held at the levels seen during the previous year, the revenue growth in the first five months would have been five percent lower. razvan.voican@zf.ro
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