Once everybody has agreed on the recession continuing in 2010,the 'bets' are now moving to the prospects of the economy in 2011.Whereas the IMF, the Government and some analysts see growthreturning, as they had initially estimated for 2010, as well, INGBank remains pessimistic and says the economy will go down againnext year.
"I see a 2% economic decline in 2011. We will most likely have newtax adjustment steps taken in the first half of 2011. If therewon't be any tax adjustment steps, then we will at least seeredundancies in the public sector, progressing somewhat faster thanthey have until now," said Nicolae Chideşciuc, chief economist ofING Bank, who attended the ZF Expert debate on the chances of aneconomic rebound in 2011.
On the other hand, Raiffeisen Bank's chief economist, IonuţDumitru, expects the economy to resume growth next year, going up2%, but says that there is still the risk of that growth turninginto a decline if new tax raises are applied.
Florian Libocor, BRD-SocGen's chief economist, anticipates 0.5-1.5%economic growth for next year.
More moderately optimistic was Radu Crăciun, Eureko Pensii's chiefinvestment officer, who sees the economy somewhere between minus0.5% and plus 0.5%.
The economy will remain in recession this year, contracting by 2%.It fell by 7.1% last year and some analysts are even expecting thisyear's GDP to go down by as much as 3%.
The National Statistics Institute is due to announce the data onthe economic performance of the second quarter today.
Pentru alte știri, analize, articole și informații din business în timp real urmărește Ziarul Financiar pe WhatsApp Channels
